Is There Really a Skills Gap in Supply Chain?

A recent HR Dive report opened 2026 with a headline that's become frustratingly familiar: hiring is picking up, but employers can't find the talent they need. Two-thirds of U.S. hiring decision-makers plan to grow headcount in the first half of this year, the strongest outlook since 2020, yet half of them say applicants simply don't have the relevant experience. Nearly a quarter say they struggle to even evaluate candidates' skills, especially anything self-taught or non-traditional.

The narrative this creates is one we hear constantly: there's a skills gap. Supply chain is too complex, too technical, too fast-moving. The right candidates don't exist, or they're increasingly rare. AI is changing everything and no one is keeping up.

That's not entirely wrong. But it's not the complete picture either.

The Answer Is More Complicated Than Most Hiring Managers Are Being Told

AI is genuinely reshaping supply chain roles at a pace that has outrun the available talent. The 2025 MHI/Deloitte Annual Industry Report found that 82% of supply chain leaders expect to be using AI within five years, but only 28% are actively using it today. Job postings requiring AI-adjacent skills in operations, procurement, and logistics have more than doubled in recent years.

This means the role you're hiring for today likely looks different than the same role did two years ago. Professionals who can run S&OP processes and also interpret ML-based demand forecasting outputs, or who understand both supplier relationship management and the AI tools now shaping procurement decisions, represent a genuinely smaller pool. That scarcity is real, and it's worth taking seriously.

The challenge is that this legitimate shift in skill requirements has led many hiring teams to a conclusion that oversimplifies the problem: that the talent isn't there. In many cases, it is. It's just not where they're looking.

You're Working With 30% of the Market

The most widely cited and consistently validated figure in recruiting is the 70/30 split: roughly 70% of the workforce is made up of passive candidates, and only about 30% are actively searching for a new job at any given time. LinkedIn's foundational global research put it at 75/25. Updated estimates land around 73%. The number varies slightly depending on the survey, but the story it tells doesn't change.

When most companies post a job and wait for applications, they're drawing from that 30%. And when the applications that come in don't look quite right, wrong industry background, missing a specific tool, gaps in the resume, the conclusion tends to be: the skills aren't out there.

But the other 70% are still there. They're employed, performing well, and not scrolling job boards. That doesn't mean they wouldn't move for the right opportunity. 

The gap isn't only in the talent. It's also in how most companies are trying to reach it. The difference between how active and passive candidates show up in supply chain hiring is worth understanding before you design your next search.

Passive Candidates Don't Just Exist. They Tend to Perform Better.

Research from the CEB Recruiting Leadership Council found that passive candidates, once hired, are rated about 9% higher in performance than active candidates and are 25% more likely to stay with the company long-term. LinkedIn data shows they're more likely to want challenging work, more likely to seek meaningful impact, and more likely to be a strong cultural fit.

This makes intuitive sense. Someone who isn't job hunting isn't doing so because they're failing. They're succeeding. They're embedded in a role, solving real problems, building institutional knowledge. They're not polishing their resume because they have to. They're doing the work.

Reaching them requires something different than a job post. It requires relationships, domain credibility, and the ability to have a real conversation about what that person's next step should look like. That's not something that scales through high-volume outreach or keyword-matching software.

The best supply chain talent isn't looking for you. That's precisely why it's still available.

The Evaluation Problem That Doesn't Show Up Until It's Too Late

This brings us back to AI, and a more specific hiring challenge. When a role now requires someone who can run S&OP processes and interpret ML-based demand forecasting outputs, knowing whether a candidate actually understands what they're talking about isn't a checkbox exercise. You have to be able to ask real questions, operational ones, and follow the thread.

A generalist recruiter can screen for keywords. They can verify certifications. What they typically can't do is probe a candidate's understanding of how AI-generated recommendations interact with supplier lead time variability, or distinguish between someone who's worked with a tool and someone who's built a process around one.

Specialized recruiters who have actually worked in supply chain, who've managed categories, negotiated contracts, or run operations teams, can have that conversation. They know what good looks like, what a red flag sounds like, and when a candidate is speaking from real experience versus rehearsed talking points.

The data reflects this. Research on specialized versus generalist recruiting consistently shows faster time-to-fill, higher candidate-to-interview conversion rates, and better retention outcomes. Not because specialist firms try harder, but because they start with deeper signal about who they're looking for and where those people actually are. Understanding what AI fluency actually looks like inside a supply chain role is part of what makes that signal possible.

So Is There a Skills Gap?

Partially, yes. There are genuinely fewer people who combine deep supply chain experience with meaningful AI fluency than current demand calls for, and that number will take time to grow. Any honest conversation about supply chain hiring in 2026 has to acknowledge that.

But a significant portion of the hiring friction that gets labeled a skills gap is something that can be addressed now: a sourcing strategy that only reaches a fraction of available talent, paired with an evaluation approach that isn't equipped to assess the skills that actually matter for roles that are evolving quickly. With supply chain role requirements shifting as fast as they are heading into 2026, closing that gap means both expanding who you're looking at and sharpening how you assess them.

The talent market in supply chain is large, credentialed, and growing. The BLS projects 17% employment growth for logistics roles over the next decade, well above average. ASCM maintains over 125,000 certified supply chain professionals globally. University programs at every level are producing new graduates with stronger technical foundations than their predecessors.

The pipeline isn't broken. But the way most companies are searching it could use a serious rethink.

Working With Supply Chain Recruiters Who Know the Role

If your open roles are sitting unfilled and the candidates coming through don't look right, it's worth asking a direct question: are you looking at all of the talent market, or just the portion that's come to you?

Reaching passive supply chain professionals requires proactive outreach, domain-credible conversations, and a realistic understanding of what it takes to move someone who isn't looking. Evaluating whether they actually have the skills for a role that's evolving in real time, especially one that now touches AI, requires people who've done the job.

If that's the kind of search you're trying to run, working with supply chain recruiters who come from the discipline, not just from recruiting, changes what's possible.

FAQs

Is there a shortage of supply chain professionals?

Partially. There's a genuine shortage of professionals who combine deep operational experience with AI and digital fluency, but the broader supply chain workforce is large and growing. A significant part of what gets labeled a shortage is actually a sourcing problem. Most companies are only reaching the 30% of professionals actively job searching and missing the 70% who are open to the right opportunity.

Will supply chain managers be replaced by AI?

Unlikely. AI is strong at processing data and generating recommendations, but supply chain management requires judgment, relationship management, and decision-making in ambiguous situations that algorithms can't replicate. The professionals who will be most valuable are those who know how to work alongside these tools, not the ones who get replaced by them.

What 5 jobs will AI not replace?

Within supply chain, the roles least at risk are strategic sourcing and procurement leaders, supply chain strategists, operations and logistics managers, demand planners, and specialized recruiters. What they share is a reliance on human judgment, organizational relationships, and contextual decision-making that AI can support but not replicate.

What skills are most important in the current supply chain job market?

The combination that matters most right now is operational expertise paired with data and AI literacy — knowing how to use planning tools and interrogate their outputs, not just accept them. Cross-functional communication and the ability to translate supply chain decisions into business outcomes are equally valued, and increasingly hard to find.

How can companies address the skills gap in supply chain?

Start by questioning whether the gap is in the skills or in the search, because most companies are only accessing a fraction of available talent by relying on inbound applications. Beyond that, writing job descriptions around outcomes rather than credentials, building structured interview scorecards, and working with recruiters who have actual domain expertise all make a measurable difference in who you find and how well you assess them.